🎯AMD Looks Tempting — But the Chart Says Wait
I broke down the technicals — here’s why I’m not buying AMD at this level (and the zone I’m watching).
Hey traders and investors,
Let’s talk about a name that's been in the headlines and on a lot of radars: Advanced Micro Devices ($AMD). They reported earnings last week, and the initial reaction was… pretty tame, all things considered. Despite a big year-over-year revenue beat and some exciting developments in the AI chip race, the stock hasn’t exploded the way you’d expect with numbers like that.
Why? That’s what I want to dig into today.
AMD is a great story company — AI, datacenters, cloud, gaming, semiconductors, generational CPU growth, and ambitious accelerator roadmaps — but it’s also been under a fair amount of pressure lately. Between geopolitical concerns, regulatory uncertainty around China exports, and some valuation concerns, there’s more to the story than just “growth stock with hype.”
But you know me — I don’t chase stories. I chase setups. And right now, this chart is talking to me. So let’s break it down.
🔍 The Story So Far
On the surface, AMD’s Q1 looked solid:
Revenue up 35.9% YoY to $7.44B
Client segment revenue jumped 68% YoY (driven by Ryzen and Zen 5 CPUs)
Datacenter segment grew 57% YoY, with continued EPYC adoption and Instinct GPU expansion
Q2 guidance came in above estimates at the midpoint
But that optimism is being tempered by some very real risks:
A $700M Q2 hit and $1.5B full-year hit from new export rules to China (MI308)
Gaming down 30% YoY and Embedded segment also lagging
AI ambitions are big, but competitors like $NVDA are still ahead
And valuation-wise, AMD isn't cheap. At 74x P/E and a price-to-sales ratio nearly double the S&P 500, there’s not a lot of room for error baked into this one.
📉 Let’s Talk About the Chart
Now for the part I know you came here for — the chart breakdown.
This isn’t going to be a pump piece. I’m not here to tell you to buy the stock just because it’s got a cool story. I want to walk you through why I wouldn’t touch it here — and exactly where I would.
Here’s the setup:
🔹 Trend and Price Action
AMD is currently trading at $102.84, up slightly on the week.
It’s sitting just above its first key support level at $102.48, which is being tested repeatedly.
The overall trend is neutral. Price action has been flat to slightly bearish since mid-April.
🔸 Support and Resistance Levels
Support:
$102.48 — this is a short-term pivot that keeps getting tested
$76.48 — this is a major level and would only come into play in a broad market selloff
Resistance:
$111.48 — significant overhead supply here
$119.48 — longer-term resistance and previous swing high
Right now, AMD is range-bound. Bulls haven’t shown enough momentum to break out, and bears haven’t cracked it below support yet.
📊 Indicator-by-Indicator Breakdown
✅ Moving Averages
50-day MA: Sitting right near price (~$98.62), acting as dynamic support
200-day MA: Still overhead and sloping down — not ideal for momentum
Interpretation: The 50-day is trying to hold things together, but without a rising 200-day or a breakout above both, I’d say this is still a neutral chart.
✅ MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
MACD line is just slightly above the signal line, suggesting weak bullish momentum
Histogram bars are green but not growing aggressively
Interpretation: Buyers are trying to take control, but it’s far from a clean signal. This is not the kind of momentum I like for a breakout play.
✅ RSI (Relative Strength Index)
RSI is 59
Interpretation: This confirms what we’re seeing — no clear trend. Neither overbought nor oversold. Just... drifting.
✅ Volume
Volume has been tepid, even on green days
No real accumulation or conviction from institutions recently
Interpretation: If big money was loading up, we’d see bigger green bars. We’re not.
🧭 How I’d Trade It
Let’s keep it simple.
✋ I’m Not Buying Here
At $102.84, this stock is:
Hugging weak support
Lacking strong upside momentum
Expensive on nearly every valuation metric
I wouldn’t chase it.
✅ My Buy Zone
I'd be interested around $95–$97. That would:
Represent a meaningful pullback from current levels
Put price below both short-term support and offer better risk/reward
Possibly coincide with a stronger bounce from the 50-day MA if it holds
🎯 Target for Swing Trade
If I get that dip entry:
First target: $111.48 (resistance)
Final target: $119.48 if momentum follows through
🔐 Stop-Loss
I’d cut the trade if we see a clean break below $93 with volume
That would violate trend structure and likely trigger further downside
🧾 Investor Angle
If you’re thinking long term, I’d still be cautious here.
AMD is a high-growth name with a strong balance sheet and big upside optionality from AI and CPU expansion. But the valuation is stretched. And if Q2 disappoints or macro shocks hit semis again, there’s plenty of downside room.
I’d want to accumulate under $95, with $76.48 as the long-term floor.
📌 Conclusion
I like AMD as a company. I respect the growth. But I don’t chase stories — I follow setups. And right now, the setup says wait.
If we get a dip, I’m buying. But at this price? I’m sitting on my hands. I want better risk/reward, better momentum, and more clarity on macro risks before I jump in.
Let me know if you’re watching $AMD too — drop your thoughts in the comments. And as always, I’ll keep tracking it.
Catch you tomorrow! -EC
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Trust the chart!