🍏 Apple Under Pressure: My Full Breakdown

A deep dive into the chart, the setup, and how I’d play $AAPL after earnings

May 04, 2025

Hello traders and investors,

Before I dive into Apple, I’ve got to take a moment to give a big shoutout to Sovereign, trainer Bill Mott, and jockey Junior Alvarado. The 3-year-old colt was my top pick heading into the Kentucky Derby, and he didn’t disappoint—outdueling Journalism down the stretch to take the crown in the 151st Run of the Kentucky Derby yesterday. What a finish. 🏇🌹

Now, back to business. Last week, Apple ($AAPL) dropped a hammer on the market with a headline-making earnings report—and I’ve had my eyes on to the chart ever since. You all know I don’t chase hype, but when a heavyweight like Apple moves nearly 4% lower after reporting a quarter that beat expectations, it deserves a deeper look.

So that’s exactly what we’re going to do today.

For those newer to my deep dive breakdowns, I’m going to walk you through this step-by-step—from what the earnings really said, to what the chart is actually showing us, and finally, how I’d think about playing this from both a trader’s and investor’s perspective.

Let’s check it out.

🧾 Apple’s Earnings: A Mixed Bag with a Tariff Twist

On the surface, the March quarter (Q2) looked solid:

EPS beat ✔️
Revenue up 5.1% YoY ✔️
iPhone sales strong (especially after a miss in Q1) ✔️
Mac and iPad sales jumped 📈
Services hit a new record at $26.65 billion 💰
Share buyback expanded by $100B and dividend hiked 4% 👏

Sounds good, right?

But here’s where the story turns...

Apple guidance for low-to-mid single-digit revenue growth in Q3 and dropped a warning that tariffs could slap on a $900 million cost in the June quarter. They’ve already been moving production to India and Vietnam to dodge China-related duties, but the damage is likely already done—at least in the short term.

And that brings us to the chart.

📊 Chart Analysis: Apple’s Technical Picture

Alright—this is where things get real. Let’s zoom in on the chart and walk through it and let it tell the story.

🔻 Trend and Momentum

The 6-month trend is bearish, and we’re seeing lower highs and lower lows from the Feb-April timeframe.
Price is trading under the 200-day moving average, which is a big red flag for momentum traders.
That 50-day MA has also turned down and is acting like a ceiling, not support.

📉 Support and Resistance Zones

Support #1: $200.21 — this is close to where the stock bounced recently. It’s soft, but it's something.
Support #2: $169.21 — this is the line in the sand from back in January. If things unravel, this could be the next stop.
Resistance #1: $240.21 — no one should be thinking about this level right now unless you’re planning your 2025 New Year party early.
Resistance #2: $259.81 — that was the 52-week high. Not relevant until bulls wake from hibernation.

📉 Relative Strength and IV Rank

RSI is weak, and relative strength is just 3/10—which tells me it’s lagging the broader market.
IV Rank is low (30), so options premiums are cheap. That’s good if you’re looking to buy options, not great if you’re a premium seller (like I usually am).

📉 Volume and MACD

Volume surged on the selloff, which tells us this move down was no fluke. Institutions were hitting the sell button.
MACD just crossed over to the downside, suggesting momentum is building against the bulls.

🛠️ So How Do You Play It?

Let’s break it down for both traders and investors in this audience:

📈 For Traders

This is a neutral-to-bearish setup right now. There’s no momentum, and it’s caught between $200 and $210. Here's how I’d approach it:

✅ Bullish Scenario (Only if it proves it)

Trigger: Close back above $210 with rising volume
Stop: Below $204
Target 1: $215
Target 2: $225

Don’t anticipate it. Wait for confirmation.

🔻 Bearish Scenario (If $200 breaks)

Trigger: Close below $200 with volume
Target: $190
Stop: Back above $202
I’m not selling any spreads here. IV Rank is low, premiums are weak, and the chart isn’t clean enough for a high-probability setup. If I play this, I’m using directional trades with defined risk.

💼 For Long-Term Investors

If you're in this for the long haul, the chart's telling a different story than the headlines.

Apple’s fundamentals are still strong—iPhone demand bounced, services hit a record, and they’re adapting fast to avoid the worst of the tariffs. But from a technical standpoint, this thing lost support at $210 and hasn’t proven it’s found a floor yet.

So, if I were looking to build or add to a position:

I wouldn’t rush in. I’d wait to see how it reacts around $200. That’s the next real test.
If it holds $200 and starts to base, that’s when I’d start scaling in—slowly, not all at once.
If it flushes through $200 and drops into the $190–$195 zone, that’s where I’d get more aggressive. That’s where you’re likely to see stronger institutional buying step in.

And I’ll say this—I’m not selling cash-secured puts here. The IV is trash. You’re taking on real risk for too little reward. I’d wait for IV Rank to climb back above 50 before even thinking about selling premium here.

🧠 My Take

Apple is one of the most important names in the market—and when it moves, everyone notices. But that doesn’t mean it’s always trade-worthy. Apple’s business is fine—but the chart isn’t. The $900 million tariff hit and soft guidance dragged this down, and price action confirms that the sellers are still in control. This isn’t a dip to blindly buy. Not yet. If it reclaims $210 with volume, I’ll consider it. If it breaks $200, I’ll look to play it short or buy lower. Until then? It’s just a chart on the watchlist.

The best trades are the ones where you don’t have to talk yourself into it. This one still needs to prove itself. Stay patient. Stay sharp. -EC

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*Disclaimer: The examples in The Options Oracle are my opinion, not financial advice.

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