🧠 Deep Dive: Is Google (GOOG) Ready for a Bounce or Headed Lower?

The chart’s breaking down… tariffs are heating up… and earnings are just days away.

Apr 19, 2025

Hey traders and investors,

Let’s talk about Alphabet ($GOOG) — because yeah, the stock just broke support, but that doesn’t automatically make it a short.

We’ve got tariffs back in the headlines, earnings right around the corner on April 24, and an elevated IV Rank at 63, so this is not the kind of setup you want to chase blindly.

Let me walk you through what I’m seeing, what I’m waiting for, and where the opportunity might be after the earnings dust settles.

📉 Technical Breakdown: Clean, But Not a Trigger (Yet)

So here’s what just happened:

$GOOG broke below key support at $155.16
It’s sitting at $153.36, below all major moving averages
Volume’s been steady, but not capitulation-level
Relative strength? Meh. Dead middle. Nothing inspiring.

Next support zone? $142.66
Overhead resistance? $155.16 → $160.66

The trend is clearly bearish, no debate there. But the thing about breakdowns this close to earnings is… they often fake people out.

⏳ Why I’m NOT Touching It (Yet)

Simple: Earnings are next week. Tariff headlines are flying. The risk/reward isn’t great here.

There’s way too much binary risk. If earnings disappoint, sure — $142 is in play. But if they surprise to the upside, this could snap back above $160 in one candle.

I don’t like guessing. I like confirmation, and right now, there isn’t any.

No touch for me until after April 24. I want the report, the reaction, and the implied volatility to settle. Then I’ll go to work.

🌍 Tariffs: How They Impact Google

Now, here’s where I think most people are missing the story:

Tariffs are back in play. And while most folks focus on names like Apple or Amazon, Google’s got a better insulation layer than most.

Here’s why:

Google’s main business is digital. It doesn’t rely on physical product imports, so it’s less exposed to direct tariff impacts.
Ad revenue is mostly domestic and regional. Unlike Amazon, which has supply chains stretching across Asia and Europe, Google’s top line isn’t tied to container ships.
China? Not a real market. The Great Firewall blocks Google services, so they’re not sweating Chinese trade restrictions like some peers.

Bottom line? Tariffs might hurt global sentiment, but they don’t crush Google’s business model. In fact, during times of supply chain chaos, digital ad spend often holds up better than physical retail.

So if you’re looking for a tech name that’s relatively insulated from geopolitical risk — this one fits.

🧠 Trade Ideas? Not Yet… But Here’s What I’m Watching

👀 If You’re a Trader:

Hold off until earnings. Let the move play out.

But once the numbers are out and we see where price settles, here’s how I might play it:

If it tanks:

Watch $142.66 like a hawk.
That’s your possible bounce zone.
I’d consider a bull put spread or cash-secured puts if IV stays elevated and price stabilizes there.

If it pops:

A close above $155.16 with volume would be my trigger to look at bull call spreads targeting $160–$165.
But again — no front-running earnings. No chasing breakouts into binary events.

📈 If You’re an Investor:

This is where it gets more interesting.

At 19x earnings, with 30%+ margins, and AI built into everything from Search to YouTube — this is a name I’d absolutely want in my long-term portfolio.

But you don’t have to load the boat all at once.

Scale in.

Take a starter position now, or just sit tight and plan to nibble if it dips closer to $145 or below.

Just know this: you’re not going to get perfect conditions when the stock is cheap. Volatility is the price of admission.

💬 My Take

Here’s where I’m at:

$GOOG just broke support, but I’m not putting on any exposure this close to earnings.
Tariff risk? Low. Earnings risk? High. Not worth guessing.
Post-earnings? That’s the window I’m interested in.

And if we get that washout move into the low $140s… I’ll be looking to trade it AND build a longer-term position. The setup is forming — just not complete. Let the amateurs guess. I’ll wait for the edge.

Let me know how you’re playing $GOOG — or if you’re waiting like I am. Always down to talk charts. 🎯-EC

📬 Want Setups Like This Delivered Daily?

If this breakdown helped you and you want more like it — high-probability trade setups, technical analysis, entry zones, and trade management updates — I deliver it all straight to your inbox every market day. Consider becoming a paid subscriber to The Options Oracle.

🔒 Upgrade to a paid subscription here

*Disclaimer: The examples in The Options Oracle are my opinion, not financial advice.