🔍 Deep Dive: MU – Micron's AI Boom Is Real, But Is the Stock Getting Stretched?

Breaking Down the Chart, the Momentum, and How I’d Trade It from Here

Micron ($MU) absolutely crushed its Q3 earnings report — beat on the top and bottom line, issued bullish guidance for Q4, and painted a strong roadmap into 2026, especially around its HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) chips. But despite all that good news, the stock is hesitating just under recent highs.

So what gives?

In this deep dive, I’m breaking down the technical setup, walking you through what I see on the chart, and laying out how I’d trade $MU right now — whether you're an investor looking to ride the AI wave or a short-term trader trying to catch a smart setup.

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The Backstory: AI Drives the Bus

Micron’s massive Q3 beat was powered by booming demand for AI-focused memory — HBM revenue surged 50% quarter-over-quarter, and data center revenue doubled year-over-year. They guided Q4 revenue to $10.7B and EPS to $2.50, both well above expectations.

They also said their HBM supply is fully booked for 2025 and already showing demand into 2026. Big money is being spent: $200B in planned capex over 20 years to scale U.S. production.

But here’s the thing — a lot of this may already be priced in. And after a monster run, the chart is starting to flash a few signs of short-term fatigue.

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🔍 Chart Breakdown:

Price closed at $124.76, just under short-term highs.

• Moving Averages: MU is well above the 10-day, 50-day, and even the 200-day SMA — bullish structure all around. But the distance from the 10-day is wide enough that a reversion wouldn’t be surprising.

• Volume: Earnings volume was strong, but we’ve since seen a pullback on lower volume — classic digestion after a big move.

• RSI: Sitting at 74 — technically overbought. Doesn’t mean a selloff is coming, but historically it’s where momentum starts to slow unless volume steps up again.

• MACD: Still bullish but beginning to flatten, suggesting the explosive upside move is cooling off.

• Stochastics: Topped out near 91 — again, this doesn’t mean “sell,” but it does mean upside could be harder to come by in the immediate term.

• Support: First level is around $114.67 (10-day), then $100.20 (200-day).

• Resistance: $127.54 (recent high), then psychological resistance around $130.

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🎯 Trade Ideas

Here’s how I’d play it depending on your style: