🛍️ Deep Dive: TJX Companies, Inc. ($TJX)

💡Trade Idea for Friday 7/13/25 A Technical Breakdown and Trade Plan for $TJX

Hey everyone,

Today I’m digging into a name that almost every shopper knows—TJX Companies ($TJX), the parent of T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods. It’s one of those stocks that tends to fly under the radar until suddenly… it doesn’t. Right now, it's sitting in a technically interesting spot. It’s been sliding recently, but that kind of pullback can sometimes open the door to some pretty compelling setups.

In this one, I’ll walk you through everything I’m seeing on the chart and explain how I’d approach it whether you're a swing trader, a longer-term investor, or someone looking to play it through options.

Let’s start with a quick update on what’s been going on with the stock.

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📰 Quick Story: Defensive Retail, but Not Immune

TJX has been feeling some pressure lately, even though it’s traditionally one of the more recession-resistant retailers. Rising inventory costs, softening consumer spending, and some mixed signals on the macro front have weighed on it. Still, TJX is holding above key longer-term levels and continues to attract institutional interest because of its strong cash flows and low exposure to e-commerce logistics costs.

But what matters to us right now… is the chart.

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🔍 Chart Breakdown: What I’m Seeing

Let’s get into the chart and start unpacking what’s really going on with price action and indicators.

📉 Price Action & Candlesticks

Right now, TJX is trading at $123.72, down slightly. The stock has been in a mild downtrend since mid-May, putting in a series of lower highs and lower lows. It’s been struggling to stay above the 50-day SMA, which is currently acting as dynamic resistance.

But here’s the thing—while the trend is weak in the short term, price is sitting right in between its 50-day SMA at $127.10 and the 200-day SMA at $122.46. That sandwiching effect often means one thing: a big move is coming.

I’m also noticing small-bodied candles over the last few sessions, which often signal indecision—buyers and sellers are basically in a standoff here.

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🔴 Moving Averages

• 10-day SMA: $124.46 short-term pressure remains below it.

• 50-day SMA: $127.10. Price has failed to reclaim this level several times.

• 200-day SMA: $122.46. Acting as support right now.

We're right on top of the 200-day. If it breaks down with volume, this could get ugly fast. If it holds and bounces, this could be a classic reversion setup.

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📊 Indicators Breakdown

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 44
Still below the midpoint and showing weak momentum. It’s not oversold yet, so there’s room to the downside if selling picks up. But a bounce here wouldn’t be shocking either—this is where RSI often flattens before turning up.

MACD: -0.66
Still negative but trying to cross back up. Momentum has been weak, but you can see the histogram bars are shrinking—that’s usually an early tell that a reversal might be forming.

Stochastics: 80
Now this is where it gets interesting. The stochastic oscillator just poked above 80, technically an overbought zone, but in downtrends that doesn’t always mean much. In fact, overbought can stay overbought if we’re about to see a turn.

Volume
Nothing impressive here. Volume has been drying up, which tells me the sellers may be running out of steam—or the buyers just aren’t stepping in yet. Either way, a spike in volume will likely tell us which direction it wants to go next.

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🧠 Support & Resistance Levels

• Support: $122.46 (200-day SMA), then $106.34 (-14.05%)

• Resistance: $127.10 (50-day SMA), $129.59 (+4.72%), and $133.84 (+8.15%)

If it holds above $122.46, there’s a decent case to be made for a short-term bounce to retest $127 or even $129. If it loses that level… $115 and $106 start to come into play.

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🛠️ How I’d Trade It

Now for the fun part—let’s talk setups.