🧾 Intuit's Tax-Time Surge: What's Next for INTU?
Q3 Was a Monster... But Is It Priced In?
Hello traders and investors —
Intuit ($INTU) just popped off like a bottle of champagne on New Year’s. The stock jumped more than 8% after dropping a monster Q3 report that showcased a standout tax season, Credit Karma’s comeback, and surprisingly strong momentum in their assisted tax services. When I see a move like that, I want to know: Is this just a sugar high, or is there real muscle behind this run?
Let’s break it down — the story, the chart, and how I’d think about trading or investing in this name from here. 📊
📚 The Story Behind the Move
Q3 is the quarter for Intuit. It’s where they make the bulk of their revenue thanks to TurboTax. And this time around, they didn’t just show up — they showed out.
Consumer Group (TurboTax) revenue was up 11% YoY to $4.0B.
TurboTax Live blew past expectations: +24% in customers, +47% in revenue.
Credit Karma? +31% YoY. A huge comeback.
QuickBooks and Mailchimp (Global Business Solutions)? Solid 19% growth despite Mailchimp being a bit of a drag.
Even ProTax for professionals grew 9%.
And that’s not all — Intuit guided higher for Q4. In this market, that’s saying something. They’re insulated from tariffs, demand looks sticky, and they’re monetizing smarter — focusing on assisted tax prep, which brings in higher revenue per return.
That’s the story. Now let’s get to the part that really matters to me: the chart.
📈 Chart Breakdown: What the Setup is Telling Me
INTU is trading at $720.13, up over 8% on that earnings beat. So now the question becomes: do we chase it here, or wait for the right entry?
Let’s walk through this — indicator by indicator — and I’ll show you what I see.
🔹 Price Action & Volume
Right away, we’ve got a clean breakout. It gapped up above previous resistance near $690 and closed with authority at $720 — strong candle, big volume. That’s real buying pressure, not just retail FOMO.
Volume tells the story. Look at that spike — highest since early February. That kind of volume after a breakout usually invites more institutional eyes.
🔹 Moving Averages (20 / 50 / 200 SMA)
20-day MA (Red) – This short-term moving average is hugging the price candles tightly and pointing sharply upward. That reflects fast momentum and immediate trend strength.
50-day MA (Orange) – Smoother and a bit slower to react, this one is sloping up cleanly and confirms a solid intermediate uptrend. Think of it as your backup support zone if the 20-day doesn't hold.
200-day MA (Blue) – The longest-term of the three. It’s well beneath current price levels and slowly rising. That tells me the bigger picture trend is still intact, even after this recent surge.
All three are aligned in classic bullish order (20 above 50 above 200), and they’re all rising — this is what a healthy trend looks like.
🔹 RSI (Relative Strength Index)
Currently at 76, which is “overbought,” but in the context of a fresh breakout, that’s expected. What matters more is if RSI stays elevated rather than retreating — breakouts often ride the overbought zone for a while.
🔹 MACD (Momentum)
MACD has just started to widen to the upside. The bullish crossover is already behind us, and now we’re seeing momentum build. This supports the idea that the move has legs.
🔹 IV Rank
Hovering around 53 — middle of the road. That means options pricing isn’t inflated and there’s no major expectation of downside risk priced in. That’s neutral to slightly supportive if you’re considering taking a position.
💡 How I’d Trade It
Here’s the bottom line: this stock just cleared resistance, but it’s also had a big move. So I’m not jumping in right now. I’m watching for two possible plays — one for traders, one for investors.
🧠 For Traders:
I’d wait for a minor pullback or consolidation toward the $711–$714 zone (which now acts as short-term support). If it holds that range and starts curling higher on volume, I’d use that as a trigger.
Entry Zone: $711–$714 on a retest
Stop: Close below $689
Target 1: $734 (recent projected resistance)
Target 2: $755+ (momentum extension)
📌 Tip: Don’t chase a candle like this — strong moves often pull back a bit before continuing.
🧠 For Investors:
If you’re holding or thinking about a longer-term position, this is the kind of breakout you want to scale into. I wouldn’t go all-in here, but I might nibble on partial shares now, and add more on a pullback into the mid-700s or low-690s.
Strong revenue mix
Recurring income model
Insulated from global tariffs
Credit Karma’s resurgence adds optionality
If you believe in the long-term dominance of their tax + small biz ecosystem, holding through these price waves makes sense.
🧾 Wrap-Up: Is INTU a Buy After the Pop?
In my opinion — not just yet, but very close.
The company delivered where it mattered, and the chart is confirming the story. But even a strong setup like this benefits from a bit of patience. Let price come back to you.
Let me put it this way: I want to buy strength, not chase euphoria. Big difference.
If INTU pulls back to support and shows strength, I’ll be all over it. Until then, it’s on my watchlist with a sharp eye on the $711–$714 level for a possible entry.
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*Disclaimer: The examples in The Options Oracle are my opinion, not financial advice.