🚨 Marvell’s AI Forecast Just Got Bigger — Is the Breakout Real or Just Hype?
Marvell Just Popped 7.1% — Time to Chase or Chill?
Hey traders and investors,
With the market closed today, it’s a perfect time to slow it down and really dig into a name that got a ton of attention yesterday — Marvell Technology ($MRVL).
The stock jumped over 7% after the company raised its forecast for the total addressable market in custom AI processors from $43 billion to $55 billion by 2028. That’s a massive upgrade — and Wall Street clearly liked it. But I’m not in the business of chasing headlines. I’m in the business of reading price.
So let’s take a look under the hood.
This one’s for the traders, and investors—I’ll walk you through what I see on the chart and break down three different ways to approach it depending on your style.
🧠 The Setup: Custom Chips and a Bigger AI Pie
Marvell isn’t trying to be Nvidia — they’re not in the GPU war. What they are doing is building custom silicon for AI workloads at the hyperscaler level. Think Amazon, Microsoft, Meta — the companies that want tailor-made chips to run AI at scale.
That’s the pitch — and Marvell just told us the pie is getting bigger. The total addressable market for this niche is now estimated to hit $55 billion by 2028, up from the $43B they projected earlier this year.
Investors loved it. The stock ripped +7.1% on heavy volume.
Now the real question: does the chart back it up?
📈 Technical Breakdown
🔹 Price Action
First thing that stands out: $MRVL had a gap up and strong continuation. It didn’t just spike and fade — it closed strong, near the highs of the day at $74.95.
Volume surged — easily the biggest in weeks — and that matters. Big moves with big volume = real interest. This wasn’t retail hype — this was institutional repositioning.
Now let’s talk levels.
It broke above the 50-day moving average (~$71.50) — and held it.
It did not break the 200-day — that’s still overhead near $78 and now becomes the key level to watch.
There’s gap support below near $71.50 and psychological support at $70.
If it pushes through the 200-day, we could see a retest of the January highs around $83.
🔹 RSI
The RSI is sitting just under 70 — right at the edge of overbought territory. That lines up with what we’re seeing: strong momentum but approaching a short-term ceiling.
This doesn’t mean sell — it means don’t chase blindly. Look for follow-through or a controlled pullback.
🔹 MACD
Clean bullish crossover happened a few sessions ago, and the histogram is building. Momentum is turning in favor of the bulls. No divergence, no weakness — it’s confirming price strength.
🔹 Stochastics
Stochs are in the overbought zone, which fits. Price moved fast. Doesn’t mean we’re done — it just means we could see a short pause or retest. Overbought ≠ reversal — it just tells you to manage your entry timing.
🛠️ How I’d Trade It
Let’s break it down by trader type.
🧭 Short-Term Position Trader
Ideal pullback buy zone: $71.50–$72. That’s right at the 50-day and gap support.
Stop under $69 — if it fills the gap and breaks below the moving averages, the setup’s broken.
Target = 200-day SMA at $78. If it clears that, next move is to $83.
Alternate play: If it opens strong and breaks through $78 on volume, I’d treat that as a breakout entry with a stop just under the breakout candle.
💼 Long-Term Investor
If I believe the AI story, this is a spot to start building a position.
You likely missed the low $60s, but $70–$75 is still reasonable to begin scaling in.
I’d layer in on dips and use the 200-day as a checkpoint — if it holds above $78, it’s in breakout mode.
Long-term target = back to January highs ($83), and possibly higher if TAM expansion becomes reality.
📦 Final Thoughts
This is how breakouts start.
$MRVL gave us a high-volume gap, reclaimed a key moving average, and has a real catalyst behind the move. But it’s also sitting right below the 200-day, and RSI + Stochastics are running hot.
So for me, this isn’t a FOMO moment — it’s a prep moment. If it pulls back and holds $71, I’m interested. If it breaks $77 with volume, I’m even more interested.
Smart move. Real catalyst. Now it’s about follow-through.
Let me know if it’s on your radar or if you’ve already played it. I’ll be watching this one closely.
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*Disclaimer: The examples in The Options Oracle are my opinion, not financial advice.
Was looking for your options ideas on this one. Straight calls?