💻 Microsoft ($MSFT) Breaks Back Above Key Levels — Bulls Taking the Wheel Again?

💡Daily Trade Idea–Tuesday Sept. 16, 2025 – $MSFT Trade Setup and Technical Breakdown

Good morning, traders and investors. Today I’m breaking down a name that pretty much everyone knows, but it’s setting up for a technical move that’s worth paying attention to: Microsoft (MSFT).

Why Microsoft? Well, it’s been consolidating after that earnings spike earlier this summer, and just recently we’re seeing signs of life on the chart. It’s trading above some key short-term moving averages, momentum is shifting, and the options market is lining up for a play that I like. Let’s dig into what’s going on here, both on the story side and the technical side, and then I’ll walk you through how I’d trade it short-term, long-term, and my personal options setup.

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📢 The Story & Sentiment

Microsoft’s been in the spotlight all year—AI chatter, cloud growth, and steady cash flow have kept it a favorite in tech. Lately though, sentiment has been a bit more mixed:

• Some traders are worried about stretched valuations after this run-up.

• But at the same time, institutional flow is still showing accumulation, especially on dips into the $500 area.

• On the retail side, I’m seeing a lot of chatter about whether this is the dip to buy before year-end momentum, and so far, the tape’s telling me buyers are stepping back in.

So overall, I’d call the sentiment cautiously bullish, with dip-buying behavior showing up at support zones.

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📊 Technical Breakdown

Here’s what I’m seeing on the chart:

• Price Action: Monday’s close had MSFT finishing at $515.36, up over 1%. That move popped it clean above the 10-day SMA ($503.68) and it’s holding above the 50-day SMA ($510.71), which is a bullish short-term sign. The candlestick was a nice strong green bar, suggesting momentum could be turning back in favor of the bulls.

• Moving Averages: The 200-day SMA sits way lower at $446.62, showing the bigger picture trend is still very much intact. The 50-day has been acting like a pivot lately—MSFT was fighting under it for weeks, but now it’s back above. That’s a key shift.

• Patterns: Nothing super clean, but you can clearly see a pullback-to-support structure after earnings. Now it looks like it’s trying to break that mini downtrend that’s been in play since mid-August.

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📈 Indicators

• RSI 58: Right now, RSI is in neutral-to-bullish territory. Not overbought, not oversold. That tells me there’s plenty of room for this to run higher before getting stretched.

• MACD: We’re just starting to see a bullish crossover forming, with the histogram turning green again. That’s a fresh momentum signal that lines up with the move above the short-term averages.

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📝 Trade Setups and My Take