👟 Nike Just Gapped 15% — But Is It Justified?

Breaking down the chart, price action, and how I’d trade it as a short-term move or longer-term setup

Hey traders and investors —

Nike ($NKE) dropped a surprise on the market Friday with a massive gap up — we’re talking over +15% — after a beat on earnings and a better-than-expected outlook. On the surface, that sounds great… but is this a one-day wonder, or the start of something more?

Let’s break it down together. I’ll walk through the backstory, dig into the chart, and lay out a couple of trade ideas — whether you're looking at it from the investor, or position trader lens.

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📦 Quick Backstory: Why Nike Exploded Friday

Nike’s Q4 report came in better than expected:

• EPS: $0.14 vs. $0.12 est

• Revenue: $11.1B vs. $10.72B est

• Year-over-year: Sales down 12%, EPS down 86%

So yeah, not exactly a win on paper — but the market clearly expected worse. Investors are betting this might be the bottom of the cycle for Nike.

They also gave forward guidance that helped calm nerves:

• Pivoting some manufacturing out of China to reduce tariff impact

• Expecting a mid-single-digit decline in sales next quarter

• Margin pressure from tariffs should ease as the year goes on

• Trying to offset the $1B in added costs through supply chain tweaks and selective price increases

Bottom line: The report wasn't great, but it was better than feared — and right now, that’s good enough to spark a 15% rally.

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📊Technical Breakdown:

Let’s look at what the chart is actually telling us now that the earnings dust has settled.

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🧭 Price Action

Friday’s move gapped the stock above the $63.93 resistance, which now becomes a new support level. The gap was clean and on massive volume — this wasn’t some random drift. It was a statement move.

We closed at $72.04 — that’s right into major overhead resistance at $72–$73. Bulls are testing the top of the recent range. If that breaks, next stop could be the $82.93 zone.

But if this gap doesn’t hold, the price could easily fade back to that $64 area to fill the gap.

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📊 Technical Indicators

RSI: 73
We’re officially into overbought territory. That doesn’t mean it reverses immediately —but it does mean upside may be limited in the very short term unless we see a continuation push Monday.

MACD: Crossed bullish
The MACD just crossed back into positive territory for the first time in a while. Momentum’s clearly shifted, but we’ll want to see a few days of follow-through.

Stochastic: 44 and rising
Still in a healthy range — not yet stretched. Tells me there’s room if buyers stay in control.

Volume: Off the charts
This was one of Nike’s highest volume days all year. That confirms the move was real — institutions showed up, and that matters.

Moving Averages:

• 20-day: $62.78

• 50-day: $60.41

• 200-day: $72.08

Here’s the key: we just tagged the 200-day and closed right at it. This is the level to watch — we either break out or get rejected here.

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💼 How I’d Trade It: