đ Weekly Market Recap â 9/20/25
Fed cuts, record highs, and small-cap breakout fuel the rally
Hello traders and investors,
First off, I want to thank everyone for the feedback on my new AI tool â The Options Oracle Trade Manager. Iâm glad to hear itâs helping many of you spot better setups, manage positions with discipline, and keep emotions in check. Keep that feedback comingâit helps me improve updates and make sure the tool works the way traders need it to!
Now, letâs dig into what moved markets this week.
đŠ Fed in Focus
The big event was Wednesdayâs FOMC meeting, where the Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 4.00â4.25%. No surprise thereâthe real action was in the guidance. Policymakers are split: nine see one more cut this year, ten expect two, and one sees none. Futures didnât flinchâthe CME FedWatch tool shows a 91.9% chance of another October cut and 80.6% odds for December. The market read that as confirmation the easing cycle is alive and well.
đ Record Highs Everywhere
The rate decision lit a fire under equities.
S&P 500 +1.2% â fresh intraday and closing records.
Nasdaq +2.2% â mega-cap strength front and center.
Dow +1.1% â steady move higher.
Russell 2000 +2.2% â breakout mode, clearing both its Nov 2024 intraday and Nov 2021 closing records.
MidCap 400 +0.1% â lagged, but still positive.
Mega-caps remained the anchor. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF gained 1.1%, while the S&P 500 Equal Weight barely moved (+0.1%). Translation: big names drove the tape, small caps joined late, and mids lagged.
đ Sector Moves
Leaders: Communication services (+3.4%) and tech (+2.1%) powered by Alphabet (+4.0% WTD) and Apple (+3.6% WTD). Consumer discretionary (+1.5%) also chipped in.
Laggards: Staples (-1.3%), real estate (-1.4%), and materials (-0.9%).
Semis & AI tailwind: Intel ripped on NVIDIAâs $5B equity stake news, helping the SOX jump midweek.
đ° Corporate Headlines
Tesla (+3.5% Mon, +2.2% Fri): Musk bought $1B worth of sharesâthe stock kept grinding higher into the weekend.
Alphabet ($3T club): Hit a fresh record, becoming the fourth U.S. company to cross that market cap.
Apple: iPhone 17 launch drove strong demand chatter and a late-week breakout.
Oracle: Choppy week, but firmed after U.S.âChina TikTok talks looked âproductive.â
Intel: Huge surge (+28.8% Thu) on the NVIDIA partnership news.
đ Macro Data Rundown
The economic tape was mixed but supportive of cuts:
Retail Sales +0.6% (vs. 0.3%) â consumer still spending.
Industrial Production +0.1% (in line) â steady manufacturing.
Housing Starts -8.5% & Permits -3.7% â affordability squeeze.
Jobless Claims down to 231k (vs. 245k) â labor holding up.
Philly Fed Index 23.2 (vs. 3.0) â regional manufacturing heating up.
Net: Enough strength to ease recession fears, but enough soft spots to justify the Fedâs dovish lean.
đ Weekly Performance Recap
Nasdaq Composite: 22,631.48 (+2.2% WTD | +17.2% YTD)
S&P 500: 6,664.38 (+1.2% WTD | +13.3% YTD)
DJIA: 46,315.27 (+1.0% WTD | +8.9% YTD)
Russell 2000: 2,448.77 (+2.2% WTD | +9.8% YTD)
S&P MidCap 400: 0.1% WTD | +5.2% YTD
đ Summary
The week was all about the Fed cut and record highs. Mega-caps continued to carry, but the Russell 2000âs breakout shows risk appetite broadening out. Tech and comm services led, defensives lagged, and housing weakness popped up as a drag. With October and December cuts now priced in, Powellâs path is clear: the market expects easing to continue, and for now, traders are willing to ride that wave higher.
Bottom line: policy support + mega-cap momentum = record highs. But keep an eye on breadthâif small caps hold their breakout, this rally gets a whole lot healthier.
Remember, I also post a free morning briefing before the open and a closing summary every day on Substack Notes and X â turn on notifications so you donât miss them!
*Disclaimer: The examples in The Options Oracle are my opinion, not financial advice.