📆 Weekly Wrap: March 17–21, 2025
A Fragile Rebound in a Foggy Economic Forecast
Navigating Noise, Signals, and a Fed That's Standing Still
Hey everyone,
This past week was a classic case of markets wrestling with uncertainty. Between a much-anticipated Fed meeting, conflicting economic signals, and continued tariff speculation, there was no shortage of headlines. But beneath all the noise, some interesting dynamics quietly shifted, and I’ve been keeping a close watch on it all.
Let’s break it down together.
🔍 Weekly Market Recap
The stock market managed to snap a four-week losing streak, but let’s be clear—it wasn’t without tension. The S&P 500 rose +0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite crept up +0.2%, thanks in part to a short-term oversold bounce. Importantly, the equal-weighted S&P 500 outperformed, closing up +0.7%, signaling that it wasn’t just mega caps doing the heavy lifting this time.
The headline event? The FOMC meeting, where the Fed held rates steady, as expected. What caught my attention—and the market’s—was the internal debate. Fed Governor Waller dissented on slowing the runoff of Treasury securities, and the new Summary of Economic Projections forecast lower GDP growth and higher inflation for 2025. That’s not exactly the soft landing narrative.
Despite that, the Fed is still projecting two rate cuts this year, showing they’re more concerned about inflation than growth—even while Powell continues to preach patience.
Elsewhere, Treasury yields declined on the week, with the 10-year yield falling six basis points to 4.25%, and the 2-year slipping to 3.95%. Not a massive move, but enough to suggest some defensive positioning.
🗓️ Daily Rundown
Monday
A “buy the dip” mood dominated, fueled by bargain-hunting and hopes for a smoother tariff rollout. Breadth was strong. Economic data was mixed: retail sales improved slightly, but Empire Manufacturing cratered and inflation pressures edged up.
Tuesday
A down day, led by mega caps. Despite some decent housing and production data, geopolitical unease and digestion of Monday’s gains weighed on sentiment. Still, gains from earlier in the week held.
Wednesday
Markets rallied on the Fed’s decision and Powell’s comments. The message? No rush on policy changes. But inflation projections ticked higher, and growth was revised lower. Classic Fed hedging.
Thursday
No follow-through from Wednesday’s rally. Strong existing home sales and jobless claims showed a resilient economy, but looming tariff uncertainty and confusing Fed signals capped enthusiasm.
Friday
Quarterly options expiration brought volatility. A late-day surge in $AAPL and $MSFT pushed indices into the green. But under the surface, it wasn’t so rosy—many stocks slid after disappointing earnings.
📊 Index Performance
📝 Analyst Ratings Recap
March 17–21, 2025
Monday 3/17
💰 $NFLX upgraded to Buy at MoffettNathanson — PT: $1,100
🖊️ $DOCU upgraded to Outperform at William Blair
Tuesday 3/18
☕ $SBUX upgraded to Buy at Argus — PT: $115
🍏 $AAPL reiterated as Outperform at Evercore ISI — PT: $275
🚗 $TSLA reiterated as Outperform at RBC — PT: $320
Wednesday 3/19
🔋 $TSLA upgraded to Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald — PT: $425
⚡ $PWR downgraded to Neutral at B. Riley — PT: $300
👟 $NKE initiated as Hold at China Renaissance
📈 $HOOD initiated as Buy at Compass Point — PT: $61
🖥️ $ORCL initiated as Equal-Weight at Stephens — PT: $167
Thursday 3/20
🪙 $FCX upgraded to Overweight at JP Morgan — PT: $52
🛋️ $WSM reiterated as Outperform at Telsey — PT: $220
🥙 $CAVA upgraded to Overweight at JP Morgan — PT: $110
🪑 $WSM also upgraded to Neutral at UBS — PT: $165
💻 $MSFT initiated as Sector Outperform at Scotiabank — PT: $470
⚡ $TSLA reiterated as Overweight at Piper Sandler — PT: $450
Friday 3/21
🧪 $DHR upgraded to Buy at Goldman Sachs — PT: $260
👟 $NKE reiterated as Buy at Needham — PT: $75
📬 From Me to You
Every week has a rhythm—some louder than others. This one was full of mixed messages, but the key is to stay grounded, sift through the noise, and stick to your strategy. Whether you're watching the Fed, eyeing analyst upgrades, or simply trying to make sense of price action, I’m right there with you, doing the work.
Thanks for reading and staying connected with me. I’ll be back soon with more updates and real-time trade ideas. In the meantime, keep your risk managed and your focus sharp.
Stay tuned for my continued reporting—there’s a lot more to come. 🎯-EC
If you want daily updates, I post a morning market overview and an evening recap every day on Substack Notes and X—just follow me and turn on notifications so you don’t miss a thing at: EdwardCoronaUSA
*Disclaimer The examples in The Options Oracle are my opinion, not financial advice.
Good recap!